Polling: Texas’ U.S. Senate race statiscally tied

By B y Bethany Blankley
The Center Square

The Republican Party will hold its first-ever midterm national convention in Dallas in September as Texas’ U.S. Senate race is statistically tied.

Political analysists and two new polls indicate that Republicans have a very real chance of losing the Texas U.S. Senate seat in November. The last time Democrats held a statewide office in Texas was in 1994. Democrats could regain control of Congress as historically the party of the incumbent in the White House loses seats in Congress in midterm elections.

Two new polls show that Texas’ U.S. Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat state Sen. James Talarico are statistically tied.

The Democratic Party “has a serious chance to win a Senate seat in Texas for the first time in a generation,” as Talarico begins the summer locked in a tied race with Paxton, who is “weighed down by past scandals,” The New York Times said when announcing a new poll.

While a majority polled, 51%, said they were voting for Gov. Greg Abbott and for Republicans in Congress, 47% each said they were voting for either Paxton or Talarico, leaving the race statistically tied. The New York Times/Siena poll was conducted among 656 likely Texas voters from June 19 to 27.

“Frustrations over President Trump’s handling of the economy and concerns about Mr. Paxton’s character have put the Senate seat in play in one of the nation’s Republican strongholds,” the Times said.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll reported similar findings. It was conducted among 1,200 self-reported registered voters between June 5 and 12. It shows 43% would vote for Paxton and 42% for Talarico while “Republicans hold larger single digit leads in the other major races for statewide offices,” the poll notes.

At the Republican Convention being held in Dallas on Sept. 9 and 10, no official delegate business is expected but it’s viewed as a rally to get out the vote before the midterm elections.

It comes at a time when President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped and remains historically low.

Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, according to polling, and they have expressed frustration over higher cost of living and gas prices.

Trump argues the convention will celebrate “the Great American Comeback, and the incredible successes of the American People who transformed our Country through the America First Agenda.” He’s also touting what he says are his accomplishments: no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, stronger borders, safer communities, lower costs of living and “real affordability,” more jobs, energy dominance, and denuclearizing Iran.

According to the Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll, 33% of Texas voters said they were “a lot worse off” economically under Trump than they were before; 21% said “somewhat worse off.” Only 8% said they were “a lot better off,” 18% said “somewhat better off,” and 18% said, “about the same.”

The New York Times/Siena poll found that 50% polled said the country is on the wrong track under Trump.

Meanwhile, several key Republicans in Texas have said they can’t in good conscience vote for Paxton in November, citing multiple scandals and extramarital affairs, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported. Paxton’s tenure as attorney general has been marked by scandal, including being the only attorney general to be impeached in Texas history. He was acquitted by the Texas Senate along party lines three years ago this September. Paxton’s campaign has argued the scandals aren’t new, he won the runoff by a landslide and maintains he can win in November.

The Texas U.S. Senate race has national implications as Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the upper chamber.