Poll spells disaster for Republicans in 2026 midterms

By Thérèse Boudreaux
The Center Square

Five months out from the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans’ chances of maintaining control of Congress appear grim, new polling shows.

The Center Square’s newest Voters’ Voice Poll revealed that 47% of U.S. registered voters surveyed would vote for a Democratic candidate if elections were held today, while only 41% would vote for a Republican. Nine percent of voters haven’t made up their minds yet.

The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from June 1-4, 2026, surveying 2,585 registered U.S. voters. The sample was comprised of 915 Republicans, 1013 Democrats, and 297 True Independents, the latter of whom chose neither major party when asked about their political leanings.

Democrats’ lead has widened by five percentage points since the Voters’ Voice Poll in March, when support for Democratic versus Republican congressional candidates was split 44%-43%.

“Democrats are widening their lead on the congressional generic ballot because they’re not the party in power – I’m not saying the Democrats are doing spectacular here, and they’re really not, it’s really that people are just so dissatisfied, and there’s really not another option,” Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square.

While the leanings of members in either of the two major political parties remain relatively stable, swing voters’ choices pose a growing threat to Republicans. A dismal 19% of Independents chose a Republican candidate, while 39% chose a Democratic candidate.

Although nearly a third of total Independents remain undecided, True Independents have shifted toward Democrats since March, with 20% now supporting a Democratic candidate and 10% supporting a Republican.

A whopping 49% of Independents are currently undecided, raising the stakes for Republicans as midterms draw closer.

Critical bipartisan legislation funding farmers and road infrastructure has lagged in Congress, and Republicans in both chambers initially blocked War Powers Resolutions to halt military hostilities in Iran that are driving up gas and food prices.

“Republicans have a problem on their hands. If these economic pain points continue or get worse, the worse it’s going to be for them for the midterms,” Noble said.

“What it’s doing is just pushing voters towards the Democrats. People are not happy, they’re feeling the economic pinch, and because of that, Republicans are hurting, and it’s benefiting Democrats,” he added. “So Republicans [will] want to get a handle on this sooner rather than later as we get closer to these November elections coming up.”

Notably, groups particularly sensitive to the rising costs of living are turning to Democrats, who have criticized recent price increases due to the Iran conflict, President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, and Republican infighting or inaction in Congress over cost-of-living issues like healthcare and housing.

The median annual household income in the U.S. was $83,730 in 2024, according to the United States Census Bureau.

The July Voters’ Voice Poll showed that Americans earning under $50,000 per year favored Democrats over Republicans, 49% to 39%.

The median income for Black households was about $32,000 less than that, while the median income for Hispanic voters was approximately $18,000 less than the overall median income.

Only 13% of Black voters and 38% of Hispanic voters said in the Voters’ Voice Poll that they would choose a Republican candidate.

Younger voters aged 18-29, who typically have the lowest salaries of any nonretired age group, also leaned left, with 55% supporting a Democrat and only 33% supporting a Republican. All age groups, however, favored Democrats at least slightly over Republicans.

Female voters, whose median income in 2024 was about $14,000 less than males’, supported a Democratic candidate by 52% and a Republican candidate by 35% in the poll, with 11% remaining unsure.

By contrast, 48% male voters surveyed supported Republicans, while 43% supported Democrats.

“What this tells us is that basically this cost of living [issue] is a dominant pressure point, and so until they can get this fixed, it’s just going to be a problem,” Noble said. “This is top of mind for folks, it’s impacting them, and again, it’s likely going to impact voting. I think also it impacts mostly those toss-up congressional seats, because those are the battlegrounds, that’s more where the persuadables outsize the partisans.”

Even without Republicans’ political woes, political parties in power generally perform poorly during midterm elections. In the current political climate, Noble added, Democrats’ best chance of regaining control of Congress is to focus on pocketbook issues rather than President Trump’s controversial actions.

“So I’m non-partisan, but if I was advising Democrats, they literally have the stupidest, simplest task ahead of them if they want to win,” Noble said. “It blows my mind, [because] Democrats still, to this day, haven’t figured out that attacking Trump does nothing for them. Trump is defined – people have their opinion of them. Just focus on the economy and costs, affordability. That’s all you’ve got to do.”

The poll’s margin of error is +/- 1.93%.