Fierce races to determine control of Congress

By Andrew Rice
The Center Square

Even as states across the country introduce and pass legislation to reshape congressional districts to favor one political party over another, several states that have not enacted mid-decade redistricting expect fierce congressional races.

In these states, congressional campaigns will have a significant impact on the makeup of Congress as voters head to the polls in the coming months for primary and general elections.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election in 2026. However, the Cook Political Report only ranks 18 races as true “toss ups,” which means either party has a good chance of winning.

Here are some of those races.

Iowa

Incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is seeking to hold onto her seat in Iowa’s first congressional district. Before serving in the U.S. House, Miller-Meeks represented Iowa’s state senate starting in 2019.

David Pautsch and Grant Hill are challenging Miller-Meeks’ in the GOP primary. Pautsch, the executive director of a Christian ministry, proposed banning all red flag laws that place restrictions on gun owners and to limit “excessive medication” of people with psychotropic drugs. Businessman Hill, who spent time in prison, says he’s “seen firsthand how broken our justice and rehabilitation systems are. I believe in second chances and in policies that help people rebuild – not keep them trapped. I’ll work for smart, compassionate reforms that reflect both accountability and mercy,” according to his 2025 survey with Ballotpedia.

Three Democrat challengers have also emerged to unseat Miller-Meeks. Former Iowa Reps. Christina Bohannan and Bob Krause have declared candidacy in the Democratic primary. Additionally, Travis Terrell declared candidacy for Iowa’s Democrat primary.

Terrell completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey in 2025 where he called for a $17 minimum wage in Iowa and promised not to accept corporate PAC money or trade stocks while in office.

“I launched this campaign with no corporate donors and no political machine behind me – just the belief that regular people deserve a voice in Washington,” Terrell wrote in Ballotpedia’s candidate survey “We need stronger laws to hold politicians accountable, ban insider trading, expose dark money, and prosecute corruption no matter which party it comes from. If you’re afraid of transparency, you shouldn’t be in office.”

Iowa’s primary election will take place June 2.

New Mexico

In New Mexico, incumbent Democrat Rep. Gabriel Vazquez will look to retain his seat as Democrats seek to regain control of Congress in 2026. Vazquez recently highlighted work he has done in Congress to block funding for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

He called for DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s resignation and declined to vote for funding of the department.

“We’ve all seen the brutality masked agents acting with impunity have brought upon Americans with our own eyes, and it’s got to stop,” Vazquez wrote in a statement.

Tom Wakeley announced a challenge to Vazquez in the Democratic primary. Wakeley called for a $23 minimum wage in New Mexico.

Three Republicans have announced candidacy for the primary elections in New Mexico’s second Congressional district: Eddy Aragon, Greg Cunningham and Jose Orozco.

New Mexico’s primary election is set for June 2.

New Jersey

Incumbent Republican Rep. Thomas Kean is running for reelection in New Jersey’s seventh congressional district. Kean previously served in the New Jersey state Senate from 2003 to 2022.

President Donald Trump endorsed Kean for his reelection bid to the seventh congressional district in 2025.

“Tom is working tirelessly to Secure our Border, Stop Crime, Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes, Champion Small Business, Unleash American Energy DOMINANCE, Support our Brave Military and Veterans, and Protect and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment,” Trump wrote.

A crowded field of Democrat contenders has emerged to challenge Kean in the general election. Eight candidates have declared candidacy in the primary including Michael Roth, former Small Business Administrator in the Biden Administration, and Rebecca Bennett, a health care technology executive.

Roth called for rewriting the tax code in a way to benefit working families. His website does not clearly explain what that would include.

“Republicans have used the tax code to reshape the American economy in favor of ultra-wealthy billionaires and multinational corporations,” Roth’s website reads. “We need Democrats with a vision of how to rewrite the tax code for working families.”

New Jersey’s primary election is scheduled for June 2.